Decision Trees

A Primer for Decision-making Professionals

2.0 Decision Scenario

2.1 Describe decision alternatives
- Chance outcomes
- Endpoints and payoffs

2.2 Incorporate uncertainty

2.3 Find the expected value (EV)

2.4 Add a sequential decision
- Construct a decision tree
- Recalculate EV
- Analyze the changes

3.0 Basic Concepts

3.1 Notation

3.2 Payoff value

3.3 Outcome probability

3.4 Expected value

3.5 Analysis

4.0 Glossary

5.0 More to Explore

1.0 Introduction (home)

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